This is a compilation list complied from the data-mined information found at http://divisionfieldguide.com/
For Exotics from caches:
A roll occurs as to if you will receive an armor piece, or a weapon.
Another roll occurs to determine which one you will receive.
(1/6) for armor. (1/20) for weapons.
This is how we come to the odds.
Any given weapon is 2.5% Any given armor piece is ~8.3%.
This is true unless mentioned otherwise.
Exotics drop from Last Stand Caches at 1%.
Exotics Drop from Field Caches at 1%.
This differs from the .14% value from before. Don’t really know why.
Exotics drop From Survival Caches at 1%.
Underground Caches Drop Exotics at 1%.
1 Exotic Drop 100% from Weekly Caches and Exotic Caches
From Dark Zone Leaderboard Caches.
If you have a Medium Cache, you have a 50% chance of receiving 1 exotic. Both Weekly and Monthly.
If you have a Large Cache, you have a 100% chance of receiving 1 exotic. Both Weekly and Monthly.
There are no chances for an exotic in small caches.
Specific Item Drops
is Dropped By Larae Barrett in Lexington Event Center at a 1% drop rate.
Drops from the Bliss boss at around 2%.
Joe Ferro’s Mask
Drops from Joe Ferro at 1%.
Drops from DZ bosses at 1%.
(3/100) for exotic (1/3) for armor.
These drop from Madison Field Hospital Boss at 1%.
Skull MC Gloves
These drop from Open World Bosses at 1%.
(3/100) for exotic (1/3) for armor
Caduceus and Tenebre
These drop from Open World Bosses at 2%.
(3/100 for exotic) (2/3) for weapon
These drop from Falcon Lost and Clear Sky respectively at 5% on both challenging and heroic difficulties.
Drops at 5% from the Fire Truck in Dragon’s Nest on either difficulty.
Hildr and Eir
Appear to drop at 2% chance for either one of them from HVT bosses.
Hungry Hog and Midas
These drop from Dark Zone Bosses at 2%.
(3/100) for exotic (2/3) for weapon.
The Thompson M1928 and the Tommy Gun both appear to be rewarded from Dark Zone Supply Drops and Contamination Events at an unknown percentage.
Urban MDR and Showstopper
Drops from challenging mission bosses at 2%.
The bullfrog appears to be an exotic reward from Dark Zone contamination events at an unknown drop chance.
The other exotics are either irrelevant, or do not have a boss drop location. Only Caches.